UFC 158 Aftermath: The Welterweights

UFC 158 was all about the 170 pounders. For all intents and purposes it was a welterweight tournament. The main and co-main event featured the top four ranked welterweights in the world and the outcome of these match-ups would decide the immediate future of the division.

As previously discussed, this event held the future of the division in the palm of its hand. The simplest way forward seemed to be if both Johny Hendricks and Georges St-Pierre were victorious. Luckily, that is exactly what happened.

Despite Carlos Condit's best efforts to throw a spanner in the works, the UFC was presented with a ready-made title fight. Hendricks was already the number 1 contender and he merely cemented that position with his win over Condit. He has been waiting for his shot and now, finally, he is going to get it. 

Since Saturday night, Dana White has said a number of times that Hendricks will get the next shot. This, however, could all change if a certain super-fight finally gets made. 

We know that the UFC has its 20th anniversary in November. We know that the UFC has been trying to get into New York for years. We know that the UFC has been trying to make Georges St-Pierre vs Anderson Silva for years. And we know that the UFC would love to put on a big show in New York to celebrate their 20th anniversary. So...

Anderson Silva seems to be keen. St-Pierre, on the other hand, seems to want to avoid all discussion on the matter. He has given no indication whatsoever that this is a fight he is actively pursuing, so i guess we will have to forget about that. For now.


So St-Pierre vs Hendricks it is. In regards to the welterweight division, it is the best possible match-up. Hendricks finally gets his long overdue shot, the best two welterweights in the world will fight for the title and the division will be moved along nicely.

The situation of Carlos Condit is an interesting one. The 'Natural Born Killer' is in a precarious position. Clearly, he is an elite mixed martial artist, he has beaten the likes of Nick Diaz, Rory MacDonald and Jake Ellenberger. However, he has come up short when it has truly mattered. 

What does the UFC do with him now?

He is on a two-fight losing streak so maybe Condit should begin to rebuild and work his way back up through top ten fighters. Although, those two fights were close decision losses to the two best welterweights in the world so it is clear  that he belongs in the upper echelon of the division. 

Perhaps he should fight Rory MacDonald. After all, that was his original opponent for UFC 158 until MacDonald dropped out due to injury and was replaced by Hendricks. This is an intriguing fight, a rematch, that the fans would like to see. The only problem is that this is a very tough fight and could conceivably result in Condit being on the wrong end of a three-fight losing streak. 

Jake Ellenberger had a big night. A big win on the best possible stage. He re-announced himself as a legitimate contender by knocking out Nate Marquardt. Something only one other man has been able to achieve, a certain Anderson Silva. He should now face either Damian Maia or Tarec Saffeidine, fights in which an impressive win could lead him to becoming the next number one contender.

From a man who gained a lot, to a man who has possibly lost a lot. Nate Marquardt was fighting in the UFC for the first time since being cut in 2011. It was his opportunity to get back into Dana's good books and to prove he belongs. That didn't quite happen though. Instead he was knocked out in the first round. Unfortunately for him, Marquardt seems to be on the chopping block. He has been cut before, he has used TRT, he is on a two-fight losing streak, he lost his last fight by first-round KO and the UFC is trimming its roster. The odds of him keeping his job appear to be bleak.

UFC 158: The fate of a division to be decided

UFC 158 holds the welterweight division in the palm of its hand. 

This event is no doubt exciting due to the quality of the fights it possesses. However, the added intrigue with this card comes with the fact that the immediate future of the welterweight division will be decided. Also, that immediate future, even this close to the fight, is very much up in the air.

The possibilities resulting from this card, in regards to future match-ups, almost appear to be endless. It is so hard predict how everything will play out after UFC 158. So lets work our way through the potential outcomes of Saturday night.

We will start with the most likely event, according to the odds, Georges St-Pierre beats Nick Diaz and Johny Hendricks beats Carlos Condit. This would be the simplest outcome for the welterweight division and the UFC. Hendricks is already the universally recognized number 1 contender, and has been waiting for his shot patiently, so a fight with St-Pierre would be the logical move. Hendricks finally gets his shot and the welterweight division is kept moving. The cleanest outcome of Saturday night.

This is where things start to get a bit more complicated. Again according to the odds, the next most probable series of results is St-Pierre beats Diaz and Condit beats Hendricks. Now what does the UFC do? Condit has only just fought St-Pierre for the title and despite it being a relatively close fight, another fight would be very hard to market and therefore rather unlikely. Dana said as much in the pre-fight media scrum, so this fight seems very doubtful. 

This is the situation that prompts certain wild card scenarios. Now the UFC has no clear title fight to make so it has to explore less conventional methods. There would be two saving graces for the UFC. One would be if St-Pierre vs Diaz was a close or controversial fight, that way they could arrange a rematch. Or this would be the perfect opportunity for the much talked about super-fight between St-Pierre and Anderson Silva to happen, probably later in the year at Madison Square Garden. Both would act as stop gaps whilst a new number 1 contender can be determined in the welterweight division. 

Alternatively, the UFC would have to find another contender. This is a tricky task, because other than Condit or Hendricks there is no stand out. I see three different options in this case. Firstly, if the winner of the Jake Ellenberger vs Nate Marquardt fight does so in a very impressive fashion then they may be able to jump into a title tight. Secondly, Tarec Saffiedine may be awarded the opportunity. A champion vs champion fight would be very marketable. Lastly and least likely, Damian Maia could be called upon. He is on a three fight winning streak since his move to welterweight, all against solid fighters.

Now for the upset. What if GSP loses? 

Despite what Dana White tells us, we can safely assume that this is not what he wants to happen. First of all, imagine Nick Diaz being world champion. He can barely handle his media responsibilities as they are now, I highly doubt his attitude to the publicity side of the business is going to change over night. I'm foreseeing many headaches for the top brass at the UFC. Then there is the super-fight. Would a St-Pierre vs Silva match-up be as anticipated or even make sense if St-Pierre has no belt? The allure of this fight is that they are both so dominant and seemingly unbeatable in their respective divisions, it is a fight to determine a pound-for-pound king. However, this wouldn't be the case if St-Pierre loses his title. This fight and the millions it would make the UFC would slip away.

Anyway, back to the potential match-ups a Diaz win brings about. The simplicity of a Diaz win is that it is almost irrelevant who is victorious in the Condit vs Hendricks fight. If Condit wins it makes sense to have the rematch they had for the interim belt, especially as Condit would that fight. It would be no problem to promote. As a Diaz vs Hendricks fight would not be. Hendricks is the number one contender, there would be no issue in granting him a title shot. Frankly, a Diaz win might the best way for Hendricks to get a title shot. This way there is no super-fight blocking his shot at St-Pierre.

If i was a betting man, which i can be on occasion, my guess would be that St-Pierre wins Saturday night. Then unfortunately for Hendricks, the UFC attempts to make the St-Pierre vs Silva super-fight at Madison Square Garden in November for their 20th anniversary. However, for one reason or another this fight doesn't take place. Maybe Silva chooses to fight Jon Jones while he can, before Jones's inevitable move to heavyweight, and therefore St-Pierre ends up fighting Hendricks at the end of year.

Whatever happens Saturday night, it is certainly going to be interesting.