This event is no doubt exciting due to the quality of the fights it possesses. However, the added intrigue with this card comes with the fact that the immediate future of the welterweight division will be decided. Also, that immediate future, even this close to the fight, is very much up in the air.
The possibilities resulting from this card, in regards to future match-ups, almost appear to be endless. It is so hard predict how everything will play out after UFC 158. So lets work our way through the potential outcomes of Saturday night.
We will start with the most likely event, according to the odds, Georges St-Pierre beats Nick Diaz and Johny Hendricks beats Carlos Condit. This would be the simplest outcome for the welterweight division and the UFC. Hendricks is already the universally recognized number 1 contender, and has been waiting for his shot patiently, so a fight with St-Pierre would be the logical move. Hendricks finally gets his shot and the welterweight division is kept moving. The cleanest outcome of Saturday night.
This is where things start to get a bit more complicated. Again according to the odds, the next most probable series of results is St-Pierre beats Diaz and Condit beats Hendricks. Now what does the UFC do? Condit has only just fought St-Pierre for the title and despite it being a relatively close fight, another fight would be very hard to market and therefore rather unlikely. Dana said as much in the pre-fight media scrum, so this fight seems very doubtful.
This is the situation that prompts certain wild card scenarios. Now the UFC has no clear title fight to make so it has to explore less conventional methods. There would be two saving graces for the UFC. One would be if St-Pierre vs Diaz was a close or controversial fight, that way they could arrange a rematch. Or this would be the perfect opportunity for the much talked about super-fight between St-Pierre and Anderson Silva to happen, probably later in the year at Madison Square Garden. Both would act as stop gaps whilst a new number 1 contender can be determined in the welterweight division.
Alternatively, the UFC would have to find another contender. This is a tricky task, because other than Condit or Hendricks there is no stand out. I see three different options in this case. Firstly, if the winner of the Jake Ellenberger vs Nate Marquardt fight does so in a very impressive fashion then they may be able to jump into a title tight. Secondly, Tarec Saffiedine may be awarded the opportunity. A champion vs champion fight would be very marketable. Lastly and least likely, Damian Maia could be called upon. He is on a three fight winning streak since his move to welterweight, all against solid fighters.
Now for the upset. What if GSP loses?
Despite what Dana White tells us, we can safely assume that this is not what he wants to happen. First of all, imagine Nick Diaz being world champion. He can barely handle his media responsibilities as they are now, I highly doubt his attitude to the publicity side of the business is going to change over night. I'm foreseeing many headaches for the top brass at the UFC. Then there is the super-fight. Would a St-Pierre vs Silva match-up be as anticipated or even make sense if St-Pierre has no belt? The allure of this fight is that they are both so dominant and seemingly unbeatable in their respective divisions, it is a fight to determine a pound-for-pound king. However, this wouldn't be the case if St-Pierre loses his title. This fight and the millions it would make the UFC would slip away.
Anyway, back to the potential match-ups a Diaz win brings about. The simplicity of a Diaz win is that it is almost irrelevant who is victorious in the Condit vs Hendricks fight. If Condit wins it makes sense to have the rematch they had for the interim belt, especially as Condit would that fight. It would be no problem to promote. As a Diaz vs Hendricks fight would not be. Hendricks is the number one contender, there would be no issue in granting him a title shot. Frankly, a Diaz win might the best way for Hendricks to get a title shot. This way there is no super-fight blocking his shot at St-Pierre.
If i was a betting man, which i can be on occasion, my guess would be that St-Pierre wins Saturday night. Then unfortunately for Hendricks, the UFC attempts to make the St-Pierre vs Silva super-fight at Madison Square Garden in November for their 20th anniversary. However, for one reason or another this fight doesn't take place. Maybe Silva chooses to fight Jon Jones while he can, before Jones's inevitable move to heavyweight, and therefore St-Pierre ends up fighting Hendricks at the end of year.
Whatever happens Saturday night, it is certainly going to be interesting.
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