Many, including the odds makers, believe that Chael Sonnen has little to no chance of dethroning Jon Jones at UFC 159.
That opinion is perfectly valid and the controversy of this fight announcement is somewhat understandable. The light heavyweight bout will be Sonnen's first since his UFC debut against Renato Sobral at UFC 55 in 2005. Which, of course, means that he is 0-1 at light heavyweight in the UFC. He is also coming off a loss in a completely different division. Chael, certainly, does not 'deserve' this fight in any conventional sense.
However, all that is now irrelevant. The fact is they will both step into the octagon and only one of them will leave as the UFC light heavyweight champion. The only real pertinent discussion now is, can he actually pull it off?
Well Jones is about as unbeatable as it gets in MMA. Ignoring the disqualification loss to Matt Hamill, he has never been beaten. Not only that, but baring a briefly deep armbar courtesy of Vitor Belfort, his MMA career has pretty much been smooth sailing. His extraordinary reach and unpredictable fighting style causes his opponents to resemble a deer caught in the headlights. He possesses that rare ability to mesmerize and remove his opposition from their game plans. It is in this area of the contest that Chael may complicate things.
One of the funnest aspects about Chael as a fighter is his go go go attitude whilst in the cage. There are no Greg Jackson-esque game plans, he simply tucks his chin in and moves forward. This, such a simple rudimentary technique, could potentially be his most useful asset.
Scared is a strong term, especially in the testosterone fueled world of MMA, so instead lets use wary. Many, if not all, of Jones's title defenses have been against challengers who seem very wary to engage. They fight prudently. Very rarely do we see the fight being taken to Jones. Yet, this is precisely what we are likely to see at UFC 159.
Chael only comes with one mode and that is attack mode. He will not stand in awe while Jones uses his length to dictate the distance at which the fight will fought. Instead, he will be constantly aggressive and will plow forward to a fault in an attempt to get inside, grab a hold of and hopefully take down the champion. After all, gangsters from Oregon have no concern for oblique kicks.
Jones doesn't possess one punch knockout power, instead he breaks you down gradually with a wide ranging assault round after round until he seizes his opportunity to finish the fight. This could be encouraging for Chael. He may be willing to eat the odd shot on the way in if it means he can complete a take down. Then what? We have never really seen Jones on the back foot or even how he reacts to adversity. There is no telling how he will respond if he cannot dictate the pace or range of the fight. He may crumble, he may rally and find a way to win.
Jones's take down defense has been impregnable, however the same was said about Anderson Silva and Chael took him down and beat him up for the majority of their seven rounds with one another. He will be hoping for similar success against Jones, minus the triangle chokes and failed spinning back fists.
The journey towards UFC 159 started back in August of last year, when the fight was announced. It has been long and it has been controversial. Eight months and one reality TV show later we are about to find out if Chael Sonnen can finally back up his rampant mouth and become a world champion.
So can a blown up middleweight who has lost on three separate occasions to Jeremy Horn beat the greatest light heavyweight of all time? Maybe. To paraphrase Chael P., he may go down, but if he does he will go down like a gangster.
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